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Emergency planning encompasses risk assessment and impact analysis. Professional emergency planners need to know what the potential threats are, and what their effects might be (as well, of course, as what course of action to implement if the threat becomes reality).

Based on recent developments, in terms of preparedness and attacks, there is not only a greater variety of threat but many are becoming more severe as well. The following examples show how varied and serious are the threats of the 21st century, and what is being done to prepare for them around the world:

H5N1

A welcome development is the proposed setting up by the UK's Medical Research Council (MRC) of a new Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling as a result of SARS and H5N1 (incidentally, many of us thought wild birds were the only carriers of the H5N1 virus until the possibility arose of it being carried on tyres across thousands of miles).

According to the MRC, understanding how best to control epidemics using public health measures, travel restrictions, drugs and vaccines is critically important. The MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling will make this the core of its mission. Centre researchers will employ mathematical modelling and statistical analysis, working closely with public health organisations around the world.

Terrorism

Terrorism may not be a new fact of life, but it has become necessary to plan for the most sophisticated of attacks. Across the Atlantic, the Canadians have determined that the protection afforded to first responders in the event of a CBRN attack has been woefully inadequate, and they have therefore established new standards.

"Canada's fire, police and EMS services are the first on the scene in 90 per cent of emergencies and not all have the minimal level of protective equipment necessary in the event of a deliberate or accidental CBRN incident," said John Walter, vice-president, Standards Development, Canadian Standards Association.

"This is why CSA, Canadian General Standards Board, and other stakeholders are working to develop a national CBRN standard that will help improve the protection of first-responders across jurisdictions from coast to coast."

Currently, there are limited protective equipment standards specific to CBRN incidents in Canada. Most first-responders in that country have hazardous material (HazMat) or dangerous goods (DG) standards to guide them in responding to a CBRN incident. With this project, first responders will have, for the first time, a national standard recognized across jurisdictions to protect them in their vital work.

Hazardous goods incidents

In the USA, the Senate were considering legislation that would strengthen the security of the nation's rail transport systems, and energy and hazardous material distribution networks. The bill, leading to the Surface Transportation and Rail Security Act of 2007 would, if passed:

• Direct the Secretary of Homeland Security to establish a task force to complete a vulnerability and risk assessment of freight and passenger rail transportation, and develop specific prioritized recommendations for improving rail security

• Authorise the Secretary to make grants for certain system-wide Amtrak, freight, hazardous materials transportation, and passenger rail security upgrades, including to Amtrak for fire and life-safety improvements and infrastructure upgrades to tunnels on the Northeast Corridor

• Direct Amtrak to submit to the National Transportation Safety Board a plan to address the needs of families of passengers involved in rail passenger accidents

• Require rail carriers to develop rail security training programs for all front-line workers
• Contain certain whistleblower protections for rail employees or other persons providing information about perceived security threats.

• Direct the Secretary to require: (1) rail carriers transporting hazardous materials to develop high hazard material security threat mitigation plans; and (2) motor carriers transporting hazardous materials to maintain route plans that meet certain requirements

• Set forth requirements regarding : (1) equipping rail wagons and motor carriers transporting high hazard materials with wireless communications and tracking technology; (2) hazardous materials security plans of shippers, carriers, and other persons; (3) truck security assessment; (4) a national security public sector response system; (5) over-the-road bus operators or over-the-road bus terminal operators system-wide security improvements; (6) a Pipeline Security and Incident Recovery Protocols Plan; and (7) pipeline security plans and inspecting of natural gas and hazardous liquid pipelines and pipeline facilities.

Out of this world

On a hopefully lighter note, we have to go extra-terrestrial to find the last of our modern-day threats, this one being by far the most severe. Astronomers monitoring near-Earth objects are playing down the chances of a newly discovered asteroid hitting Earth in 2014.

The experts say that there is a one in 909,000 chance of asteroid 2003 QQ47 impacting our planet. 2003 QQ47 has been ranked 'one' on the Torino scale (0 to 10), where zero means that then threat of a collision with our planet is nil.

The definition of a 'one' on the Torino scale is that, "while meriting the attention of astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or concern…". Notwithstanding, there can hardly be a more appropriate reason to carry out an impact analysis.

And playing down the chances of a collision did not stop our TV news programmes having a field day with the computer graphics to show us what the effects might be if it hits, and how we might destroy or divert it if it gets too close.

Peter Brodie
Emergency Management Portal
www.emergencymanagement.org.uk